Decision Making
The purpose of this assignment is to show how business decisions can be made by using rigorous decision-making techniques.
Using specified data files, chapter example files, and templates from the “Topic 8 Student Data, Template, and Example Files” topic material, complete Chapter 6, Problems 2, 31 (part a), 32, and 33 from the textbook. Use Microsoft Excel to complete Problem 2. Use the Palisade DecisionTools software to complete Problems 31, 32, and 33, and ensure that all Palisade software output is included in your files. The Palisade DecisionTools Excel software needs to be used to create the decision trees.
Problem #2:
For the decision problem in Figure 6.1, use data tables to perform the following sensitivity analyses. The goal in each is to see whether decision 1 continues to have the largest EMV. In each part, provide a brief explanation of the results.
Let the payoff from the best outcome, the value in cell A3, vary from $30,000 to $50,000 in increments of $2500.
- Let the probability of the worst outcome for the first decision, the value in cell B5, vary from 0.7 to 0.9 in increments of 0.025, and use formulas in cells B3 and B4 to ensure that they remain in the ratio 1 to 2 and the three probabilities for decision 1 continue to sum to 1.
- Use a two-way data table to let the inputs in parts a and b vary simultaneously over the indicated ranges.
Problem #31a:
Carlisle Tire and Rubber, Inc., is considering expanding production to meet potential increases in the demand for one of its tire products. Carlisle’s alternatives are to construct a new plant, expand the existing plant, or do nothing in the short run. The market for this particular tire product may expand, remain stable, or contract. Carlisle’s marketing department estimates the probabilities of these market outcomes to be 0.25, 0.35, and 0.40, respectively. The file P06_31.xlsx contains Carlisle’s payoffs and costs for the various combinations of decisions and outcomes.
- Use PrecisionTree to identify the strategy that maximizes this tire manufacturer’s expected profit.
Problem #32:
A local energy provider offers a landowner $180,000 for the exploration rights to natural gas on a certain site and the option for future development. This option, if exercised, is worth an additional $1,800,000 to the landowner, but this will occur only if natural gas is discovered during the exploration phase. The landowner, believing that the energy company’s interest in the site is a good indication that gas is present, is tempted to develop the field herself. To do so, she must contract with local experts in natural gas exploration and development. The initial cost for such a contract is $300,000, which is lost forever if no gas is found on the site. If gas is discovered, however, the landowner expects to earn a net profit of $6,000,000. The landowner estimates the probability of finding gas on this site to be 60%.
- Use PrecisionTree to identify the strategy that maximizes the landowner’s expected net earnings from this opportunity.
- Perform a sensitivity analysis on the optimal decision, letting each of the inputs vary one at a time plus or minus 25% from its base value, and summarize your findings. Which of the inputs appears to have the largest effect on the best solution?
Problem #33:
Techware Incorporated is considering the introduction of two new software products to the market. The company has four options regarding these products: introduce neither product, introduce product 1 only, introduce product 2 only, or introduce both products. Research and development costs for products 1 and 2 are $180,000 and $150,000, respectively. Note that the first option entails no costs because research and development efforts have not yet begun. The success of these software products depends on the national economy in the coming year. The company’s revenues, depending on its decision and the state of the economy, are given in the file P06_33.xlsx. The probabilities of a strong, fair, or weak economy in the coming year are assessed to be 0.30, 0.50, and 0.20, respectively.
- Use PrecisionTree to identify the strategy that maximizes Techware’s expected net revenue.
- Perform a sensitivity analysis on the optimal decision, letting each of the inputs vary one at a time plus or minus 25% from its base value, and summarize your findings. Which of the inputs appears to have the largest effect on the best solution?
To receive full credit on the assignment, complete the following.
Ensure that the Palisade software output is included with your submission.
Ensure that Excel files include the associated cell functions and/or formulas if functions and/or formulas are used.
Include a written response to all narrative questions presented in the problem by placing it in the associated Excel file.
Place each problem in its own Excel file. Ensure that your first and last name are in your Excel file names.
APA style is not required, but solid academic writing is expected.
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