Meteorology and Forecasting Techniques Module 10 Forecasting
1. List five different forecasting techniques or methods.
2. What is a persistence forecast? If conditions are rapidly changing do you expect these to be accurate? When would they be useful?
3. What is a consensus forecast? Is the degree to which they clump around an average solution useful as well? Do variable outcomes provide warning about possibly extreme events? How is the trend of the consensus over time useful to forecasters?
4. How can analog, pattern recognition, and trend forecasts be used together as a blended technique to forecast weather? Can these be tailored for use in a given local region, to take into account local geography, topography, bodies of water, etc?
5. List the steps of NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction)?
6. What is an ensemble forecast? How can they be used for long range prediction and to diagnose potential extreme, severe weather events?
7. List several sources of error associated with NWP:
8. What does it mean if a forecaster says there is a “60% chance of rain?”