Completing the Logic Puzzles Strategies After completing the logic puzzles in Chapter 1 of the text, reflect on your strategies. What strategies did you use to solve the problems?
Which strategies were most effective for you?
Why?
Summarize your thinking strategies used in the logic problems and evaluate their effectiveness. If it is applicable to do so, it is highly recommended to include an attachment of custom or referenced illustrations to your thread to illustrate and support your ideas.
The Monty Hall Problem
The Monty Hall problem is based on the television game show Let’s Make a Deal. While
I have never seen the show, it goes something like this:
Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one
door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who
knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He
then says to you, “Do you want to swap and pick door No. 2 OR stay with door No. 1?”
The real question here is ‘do you switch?’ Intuitively, I think it makes no difference. I
have been thinking about this problem for a few days, and here is my logic. The game show host knows where the goats are! Of course, he is going to open a goat door for
you, so you can assume that really you only have a 50%/50% chance of picking the real
prize. No matter what door you choose, the host will eliminate a goat door, leaving one goat door and one prize door, so what difference does it make?
After many lively discussions around the dinner table, someone said: When you first
chose you had a 1/3 chance of picking the prize. Once the goat door opens, you have a
2/3 chance of picking the prize. Alright, I concede that my odds do increase after the
door is opened, but how do you get to 2/3? If I assume that I really only have a 1/3
chance of choosing the goat door because the host will eliminate the other goat door,
making my odds 2/3, does that encourage me to switch? What if I chose the prize in the
first place?
I remember seeing this problem recently, oh yes… one of my favorite movies, 21
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxaydqNATDM According to Ben, based on
variable change, I should switch. After the goat door gets opened my odds of choosing
the prize door increase to 2/3.
What do you think?
