Times Picayune Poll with the Actual Election Data

Times Picayune Poll with the Actual Election Data Submission Guidelines: You may work in groups of 2-3 for this assignment, but groups should be no more than 3 people. You may also work on your own if you choose.

To receive full credit, this written assignment must be at least three pages long. It must be typed, double spaced, and written in 12 points or smaller font. All margins should be one inch. You must submit an electronic copy on Canvas by the beginning of class on the due date. You do not need to hand in a hard copy. I will not accept late essays for any reason. If you have not submitted an electronic copy by the beginning of class on the due date, you will earn 0 points for this assignment.

Times Picayune Poll with the Actual Election Data References

You must include a works-cited section at the end of your essay. Any standard works cited format is fine. If you choose to work on your own, you may still discuss the assignment with others in the class, but you should add a note at the end of the paper indicating whom you spoke with. If you work in groups, you should each turn in an electronic copy of the assignment into Canvas, but each group member should include a brief summary of what they and their group members contributed to the assignment. You may decide how you want to split up the work, but each group member should contribute equally. If a group member contributes little to no work, then this will be considered plagiarism, since they are taking ownership of someone else’s writing. You must produce at least three pages of your own content; in other words, quotations and the works-cited do not count towards the page limit.

One of the major uses of normal distributions which we didn’t cover in full detail is predictive polling. For politics in particular, predictive polling presents a proportion of the population’s perspectives which pundits produce as proof of a politician’s popularity. (And with that potpourri of “p”s to punctuate the point, we can progress with the prompt.)For example, during the 2016 US presidential election, Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com used data from1106 national polls to try and predict the results of the election. The last of these polls, conducted by The Times-Picayune week before the election, estimated that

45% of votes would go to Hillary Clinton

,•40% of votes would go to Donald Trump, and

5% of votes would go to Gary Johnson.

Times Picayune Poll with the Actual Election Data Written Assignment #2 Instructions MATH 203 SPRING 2019

Grading: This essay will be graded out of 25 points, primarily on mathematical correctness and quality of presentation and discussion, with content, grammar, punctuation, and style all being considered. A rubric for this assignment can be found on Canvas.

Submission Guidelines: You may work in groups of 2-3 for this assignment, but groups should be no more than 3 people. You may also work on your own if you choose. To receive full credit, this written assignment must be at least three pages long. It must be typed, double spaced, and written in 12 points or smaller font. All margins should be one inch. You must submit an electronic copy on Canvas by the beginning of class on the due date. You do not need to hand in a hard copy. I will not accept late essays for any reason. If you have not submitted an electronic copy by the beginning of class on the due date, you will earn 0 points for this assignment.

References: You must include a works-cited section at the end of your essay. Any standard works cited format is fine. If you choose to work on your own, you may still discuss the assignment with others in the class, but you should add a note at the end of the paper indicating whom you spoke with.

If you work in groups, you should each turn in an electronic copy of the assignment into Canvas, but each group member should include a brief summary of what they and their group members contributed to the assignment. You may decide how you want to split up the work, but each group member should contribute equally. If a group member contributes little to no work, then this will be considered plagiarism, since they are taking ownership of someone else’s writing. You must produce at least three pages of your own content; in other words, quotations and the works-cited do not count towards the page limit.

Times Picayune Poll with the Actual Election Data Measuring “Close Enough”

One of the major uses of normal distributions which we didn’t cover in full detail is predictive polling.

For politics in particular, predictive polling presents a proportion of the population’s perspectives which pundits produce as proof of a politician’s popularity. (And with that potpourri of “p”s to punctuate the point, we can progress with the prompt.)

For example, during the 2016 US presidential election, Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com used data from 1106 national polls to try and predict the results of the election. The last of these polls, conducted by The

Times-Picayune a week before the election, estimated that

45% of votes would go to Hillary Clinton,
40% of votes would go to Donald Trump, and
5% of votes would go to Gary Johnson.

In the actual election, however, Clinton received 48% while Trump received 46%, a much smaller difference between the two. There are many things that can lead to inaccurate estimates, but we can address one —bad luck in our sample — using statistics.

You’ll be using two new pieces of math in this assignment: confidence intervals, and margins of error.

A confidence interval is a range of values that the actual outcome of an experiment is likely to fall into; for example, if a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of votes candidate A receives is from 49%

to 52%, then there is a 95% chance that candidate A will receive between 49% and 52% of the votes.

A margin of error is the difference between a population mean (that is, the actual percentage preferring a candidate in this case) and a sample mean (the percentage preferring that candidate in our poll)

Written Assignment #2 Instructions MATH 203 SPRING 2019 that corresponds to our confidence interval of choice. For example, if we have a 95% confidence interval,

52% of people in our poll prefer candidate A, and our margin of error is 3 percentage points, then our confidence interval is from 52 – 3 = 49% to 52 + 3 = 55%.

Your instructor will post a tutorial for calculating margin of error, which will be helpful for this assignment.

In this assignment, you will write about two polls: first, the poll from The Times-Picayune; and second, a poll from an election of your choice. You should discuss the margin of error in each poll and what it means in terms of the actual election. In particular, you should:

Explain confidence intervals and margins of error in your own words.
Calculate the 95% confidence interval and margin of error in The Times-Picayune’s poll, from the perspective of Donald Trump. (Note that the tutorial calculates this from Hillary Clinton’s perspective, so you will not use the same calculations.) Describe your calculations and results in the paper.
Briefly describe the 95% confidence interval and margin of error for the percentage of votes Clinton will receive based on The Times-Picayune.
Compare The Times-Picayune’s poll with the actual election data. If this poll was the only information you had about the election, would you be surprised by the outcome (taking only the popular vote into account, not the Electoral College).
Find some other poll of your choice and calculate the 95% confidence interval and margin of error for at least one of the candidates of the poll. If the election has already happened, analyze the results and how well the poll predicted the outcome. If the election hasn’t happened yet, describe some outcomes you think would be reasonable based on your calculations.
Include some thoughts on the 95% confidence interval. It’s possible to use other confidence intervals, such as 90% or 99%. Do you think the 95% confidence interval is reasonable for each of the polls you are discussing? Are there circumstances where you might expect to use a different interval?

As a general note, you should focus primarily on interpreting the math for this assignment, not on the politics.

The Intended Audience and Writing Style

The intended audience for your essay is someone who has a basic understanding of probability but not necessarily normal distributions, confidence intervals, or margins of error. Be sure to give context when addressing the questions in this assignment. The list of questions is intended to structure your discussion but should not be copied verbatim into your essay. Although you should clearly address them all, your paper should not be in question-and-answer format. Instead, the different components of the essay should be crafted in your own voice and style. Your essay should have an introduction and conclusion paragraph, and should be organized in a way that makes the essay flow and is easy for the reader to follow

Political Science Ideology Research Paper

Explore one specific element of ideology “Imperialism”. For example, you might focus on a person, a country, a practice, etc. You can then detain how that element contributes to your understanding of the Imperialism.

As with the exams, your task is ultimately to show that you understand the concepts taught in lecture. Use the study guides’ lists of terms as sources for the terminology you should utilize in your paper.
For example, you might focus on fascism and the Endelosung, or Final Solution Program employed by Hitler to eradicate the Jews.

Format: Length should be about 1000 words or four to five typed pages. The paper should be double-spaced with a 12-point font Times New Roman and 1 inch margins. Number the pages in the upper right hand corner of the page. Do not use a cover sheet, rather, use a simple heading in the upper left- hand corner of the first page

Sources: You are required to use five sources. No more than three sources can come from the Internet. U.S. News and World Report and your text can serve as other sources. Cite your sources in a either FOOTNOTES or ENDNOTES. A separate Bibliography is required as well. Follow the CMS style guidelines.
You can visit
http://citationmachine.net http://owl.english.purdue.edu/handouts/research/r_CMS.html

We can write this or a similar paper for you! Simply fill the order form!

President Donald J. Trump’s State of the Union Address

PART A

Based on the 2019 State of the Union Address, select an option below as a discussion prompt:
1) Select 2 points from the address that you agree with and discuss how they are vital to the success of America and Texas.
or

2) Select 2 points from the address that you disagree with and create alternative strategies that will benefit the American people and Texans.

Trump, D. “President Donald J. Trump’s State of the Union Address.” U.S. White House. 5 February 2019,

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trumps-state-union-address-2/

I will add information and questions to this discussion to keep the conversation going. You may select 3-4 questions or topics to include in your writing prompt. You may also pose questions to others.

Discussion Grading Rubric
Proactive (10 points) Student responded to the discussion prompt in 6-8 complete sentences and articulated a clear viewpoint on the topic. Student incorporated relevant research, correctly cited at least 2 sources in MLA or APA format and used proper grammar.

(Students must provide an above average viewpoint on the discussion prompt, answer the question(s) in the discussion prompt, incorporate relevant research and cite the article used in the discussion prompt along with additional research.)
Substantial (7 points) Student responded to the discussion prompt in 6-8 complete sentences and answered the prompt in a generic manner. Student correctly cited work in MLA or APA format and used proper grammar.

(Students must answer the question(s) in the discussion prompt, provide more support to answer the prompt other than their personal opinion and at least cite the article used in the discussion prompt.)
Superficial (3 points) Student responded to the discussion prompt in 4-5 sentences and answered the prompt in a generic manner. Student used proper grammar.

(Students must attempt to answer all or a portion of the discussion prompt. Students will receive 3/11 points if they do not cite their work.)
Incorrect (0 points) Student did not submit a discussion post. Student plagiarized portions of the submission. Student did not cite work and/or use proper grammar

PART B

The original discussion prompt has been changed to reflect current news.
President Trump has declared a national emergency to address concerns over border security. Is his declaration a national emergency? Is it constitutional?
Horsley, Scott. “Many Presidents Have Declared Emergancies – But Not Like Trump Has” Politics. NPR. 15 February 2019,

https://www.npr.org/2019/02/15/695203852/many-presidents-have-declared-emergencies-but-not-like-trump-has

We can write this or a similar paper for you! Simply fill the order form!

Constitution of political parties Essay

Constitution of political parties

Although the constitution did not anticipate political parties they developed very soon. Discuss the positions of the parties associated with Alexander Hamilton and Thomas Jefferson. Use chapter 7 and 8 from Text book ENDURING VISION” A
History of the American People Volume 1 to1877.

Your assignment must follow these formatting requirements:

Be typed, double spaced, using Times New Roman font (size 12), with one-inch margins on all sides; citations and references must follow APA or school-specific format. Check with your professor for any additional instructions.
Include a cover page containing the title of the assignment, the student’s name, the professor’s name, the course title, and the date. The cover page and the reference page are not included in the required assignment page length.

We can write this or a similar paper for you! Simply fill the order form!

European Social and Political Art of the 20th Century

European Social and Political Art of the 20th Century Writes a 20-page research paper on European social and political art of the 20th century.

Specifically, by Jewish and Roma concentration camp victims from Auschwitz and Theresienstadt. Incorporate as many artworks as you wish as long as they were produced by such victims. In addition, be sure to include the following artists and their artwork(s):

– Karl Robert Bodek and Kurt Conrad Löw, and their artwork titled ‘One Spring’, 1941

– Charlotte Salomon’s ‘Self Portrait’, painted between 1939 and 1941

– Felix Nussbaum’s ‘The Refugee‘, painted in 1939

Papers need to be 20 pages in length; this means standard margins (1 inch) and fonts (12 points). This also means actual text, not including the appended illustrations. Papers should include reproductions of the artwork(s) discussed. These can be photocopied in black and white and/or color. Images may be taken from the Internet. Postcard and photographic reproductions are also acceptable. Illustrations may be integrated into the text or appended at the end. Each illustration should be carefully labeled (Figure 1, Figure 2, Figure 3, etc.). Pages must be numbered. Footnotes or endnotes are acceptable. The use of the first person (“I”) is also perfectly acceptable and encouraged. Be sure to include works cited page, CITE EVERYTHING.

Include at least 10 sources. The following sources can be used towards your total.

– Duchesne, Aurelie. “Urizen and the Image of the Refugee: The Refugee Crisis from and

Aesthetic Perspective,” IALS Student Law Review vol. 4, no. 2 (Summer, 2017): p. 3-18.

HeinOnline, https://heinonline.org/HOL/P?h=hein.journals/ialsrev4&i=73.

– Bohm-Duchen, Monica. After Auschwitz: Responses to the Holocaust in Contemporary Art.

Lund Humphries, 1994.

– Hayes, P. F., Mickenberg, D., & Granof, C. (2003). The Last Expression: Art and Auschwitz.

Northwestern University Press.

– Baigell, Matthew. Jewish-American Artists and the Holocaust. Rutgers University Press, 1997.

– Goldfarb, Alvin. “Theatrical Activities in Nazi Concentration Camps.” Performing Arts Journal,

vol. 1 no. 2, 1976, pp. 3-11. Project MUSE,

muse.jhu.edu/article/654671.

AMERICAN GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS

4 full pages with a good amount of citations and reference link on page 5
Instructions:

You may need to do research for the following essay.
Please cite your sources using MLA or APA style (Here is a helpful guide: https://owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/resource/560/01/
Please make a references page at the end of the essay.
The references page does not count toward the 3-4 pages (double spaced).
You need to have a minimum of 3-4 pages of ESSAY CONTENT. If your essay is 2.5 pages it will be UNACCEPTABLE.
Type your essay! Times New Roman font, 12 point font, 1-inch margins all around, and page numbers (top right-hand corner).
In-text citations are REQUIRED.
Minimum of TWO scholarly and academic sources (you may also use the text as one of them).
No blogs, no Wikipedia, no Sparknotes, no Cliffnotes, no unrelated opinions.
Answer ALL the question(s).

PROMPT:

Consider how the government is important in your daily life.
For example, our alarm clocks are powered by electricity provided by a public utility. Our shower water comes from a municipal water system, our breakfast foods are safe because of governmental inspections.
Think about what you do from the moment you wake up to when you go to sleep. Think about a typical day in your life. Before you write your essay, perhaps make a timetable of what you do every hour.

Write an essay, 750 to 1000 words (i.e., 3 to 4 pages) that address all the ways you encounter the government on a daily/frequent basis.

For each item, answer how is that experience related to the government and why is it relevant.

We can write this or a similar paper for you! Simply fill the order form!

Political Science Irish Studies and Parliamentary Affairs

Political Science Irish Studies and Parliamentary Affairs All strict instructions are found in the following file

POLI 313/IRST 398

Politics of Northern Ireland

Paper Proposal Assignment

Length: 2-3 pages MAXIMUM

Value: 5% of Final Course Grade

Submission: Moodle portal

Political Science Irish Studies and Parliamentary Affairs Objectives

The objectives/parameters of this assignment are:

Indicate the topic chosen for the term paper. The topic must be chosen from one of the topics posted on Moodle, or approved by Professor Kelly via email.

Provide a brief (250 words maximum) discussion of the paper topic.
Provide a working bibliography of at least 10 academic sources. Please see the discussion below regarding acceptable and unacceptable academic sources.

The 10 academic sources must be found by you – they cannot include assigned course readings. While you are permitted to use assigned course readings, you must provide at least 10 academic sources that you have independently found for your assignment.

Assignments that only include assigned course readings or rely heavily on assigned course readings will be assigned a failing grade.

Assignments that rely too heavily on non-academic sources will be heavily penalized.

Students must use proper bibliographical entries for academic sources used in the paper. Please consult the reference documents for proper bibliographical entries and footnotes on the course Moodle site.

Structure of the Paper Proposal

Ensure that your paper proposal contains the following elements:

A title page that includes your name, student number, the course number, and the topic of your term paper.

A brief 250 word discussion of your essay topic. Do not exceed the word count. Proposals that excee

materials are properly entered, and whether citations (endnotes, footnotes, or parenthetical references) are properly done.

Political Science Irish Studies and Parliamentary Affairs Academic Sources

You are required to use academic sources and to gather materials outside of the

assigned course readings. Appropriate academic sources are peer-reviewed journal articles, books published by University Presses or equivalent presses, and chapters in edited volumes produced by University Presses or equivalent presses.

Examples of peer-reviewed journals relevant for this paper include:

Irish Political Studies;
Parliamentary Affairs;
Government and Opposition;
British Journal of Politics and International Relations;
British Journal of Political Science
Northern Ireland Legal Quarterly;
Canadian Journal of Irish Studies

Your bibliography must contain a minimum of 10 academic sources and your paper must cite the materials entered in your bibliography. While you may use assigned course readings, they must be used in a secondary role, and your paper CANNOT rely too much on assigned course readings. Finally, the 10 minimum academic sources do not include any assigned course readings included in your bibliography.

Topics

NOTE – the suggested topics are simply illustrations of the kind of research questions that you can formulate on the various subjects under consideration.

As such, you are free to reformulate the research question to suit your research interests.

If there is a topic you would like to write on that does not appear in the list, please email Professor Kelly for prior approval.

Should Northern Ireland establish a ‘Truth and Reconciliation Commission’ modeled after South Africa to address the legacies of The ‘Troubles’?

Has the Northern Ireland Peace Process been a success? Is it a model for reconciliation in other deeply divided societies or is it simply applicable to the unique circumstances of Northern Ireland?

How democratic is the system of devolved government established as part of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998? Has consociationalism reinforced sectarianism and prevented the emergence of ‘normal’ politics in a democratic society? For instance, is ‘post-sectarian’ politics possible under ‘coercive consocilationalism’ that presently exists in Northern Ireland?

Assess whether the Northern Ireland Civil Rights Association and its campaign for social justice was successful.

Explain the rise of the Democratic Unionist Party as the preeminent party within Unionism. What accounts for the rise of this anti-agreement party as currently the largest political party in the Northern Ireland Assembly, and its leader as First Minister after the 2007 Assembly election?

Provide an assessment of the government of Prime Minister Terrance O’Neil (1963-1969). Was the O’Neil era a missed opportunity for Northern Ireland?

Does BREXIT pose a threat, or represent an opportunity, for the Northern Ireland Peace Process and the power-sharing institutions?

Why did conflict erupt in Northern Ireland in 1969 and why did it take so long for a settlement to be reached?

The Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) began as the most important Nationalist party during the Northern Ireland Peace Process and during the first years of devolved government after 1998. What explains its reversal in fortune, and the rise of Sinn Féin as the largest Nationalist party in the Northern Ireland Assembly after the 2006 Assembly election?

10.Would the Northern Ireland Peace Process have succeeded without the role played by the United States government and the Clinton administration?

Sinn Féin describes itself as an ‘Irish Republican’ political party committed to a United Ireland through the pursuit of Republican Nationalism. Assess whether Sinn Féin’s participation in the all-party talks that produced the Good Friday Agreement, and its participation in the Northern Ireland Executive, have altered the type of political party it is and the form of nationalism it pursues. Consider the structure of Sinn Féin as the only ‘All Ireland’ political party in your analysis.

Was the introduction of the policy of Internment in 1971 the single largest mistake of the Unionist government lead by Brian Faulkner, and the reason

why the ‘Troubles’ proved unresolvable until 1998 with the passage of the Good Friday Agreement?

13.How important was the reform of the Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC) and its replacement as the Police Services of Northern Ireland (PSNI), as recommended by the Patten Report, to the Northern Ireland Peace Process?

Assess the significance of sectarian murals that emerged in Northern Ireland after the 1981 Hunger Strikes. Compare and contrast Loyalist and Republican murals and their contribution to political discourse, both before and after the 1998 Good Friday Agreement.

What explains Northern Ireland’s exceptionalism within the United Kingdom on the issue of access to abortion and marriage equality? Why are abortion and same-sex marriage legal in the rest of the United Kingdom but unavailable to residents of Northern Ireland?

The Good Friday Agreement provides that the constitutional status of Northern Ireland – whether to remain as part of the United Kingdom or a part of a United Ireland – is the sovereign decision of the people of Northern Ireland. How likely is the constitutional status of Northern Ireland to change, or is the present status of Northern Ireland as a British province the realistic and long-term certainty?

Belfast is described as a ‘Divided City’ most apparent with the presence of ‘Peace Walls’ and ‘Interfaces’ that separate the Unionist and Nationalist communities. Provide an assessment of the factors that lead to the erection of these physical barriers and consider whether Belfast is likely to remain a divided city, despite the Northern Ireland Peace Process entering its 20th year.

Historical and Political Overview on Criminal Justice

Historical and Political Overview on Criminal Justice Select a country different from your own and prepare a paper for your colleagues to familiarize them with that country’s criminal justice system.

Using scholarly journal articles, peer-reviewed sources, newspapers, magazines, or the Internet, write a 3â€“5-page paper answering the following questions:

How is the system in the country you have chosen differently from that of the U.S. system?

What are the similarities and/or differences historically and politically?

How do the cultural aspects of that country influence its system? The criminal justice system is the set of agencies and processes established by governments to control crime and impose penalties on those who violate laws.

Local Political Issue and Personal Experience

Local Political Issue and Personal Experience Please select a local political issue that you find to be of interest. This can be based on the November midterm elections, personal experience, or individual interest. Compare and Contrast different points of view on this subject Dates must be 2016 to present. Ask yourself the following questions. How does this issue affect my daily life? How does this affect me long term? Would I like to change anything about my situation? If yes, why? If no, why?

Content—Address the various sides of the current issue, drawing personal conclusions based on their analysis of the issue, and demonstrating an understanding of its complexities.•Present an informed evaluation of the evidence and the different viewpoints surrounding the topic. Compare and contrast the different viewpoints of the sources cited, taking into account position limits. Analyze and question your sources’assumptions.•Paper length—Your paper should contain a minimum of 750 words (not counting headings). (No maximum length). The paper should be typewritten, double-spaced, and based on information from a minimum of three sources (no maximum).•Writing style—With few or no typographical errors, misspelled words, and grammatical errors. Use proper complete sentence and paragraph structure. Improve your writing style by revising the paper as many times as necessary.•Citations—Anytime you borrow someone’s ideas, paraphrase or quote them, and cite all sources using an appropriate method approved by the Instructor. Construct a bibliography (e.g., a“work cited” or “End Notes” page)

MLA format

We can write this or a similar paper for you! Simply fill the order form!

Polling evidence assignment available

Polling evidence assignment

1. In families with four children, you’re interested in the probabilities for the different possible numbers of girls in a family. Using theoretical probability (assume girls and boys are equally likely), compile a five-column table with the headings ì0î through 4,î for the five possible numbers of girl children in a four-child family. Then, using ìGî for girls and ìBî for boys, list under each heading the various birth-order ways of achieving that number of girls in a family.

Polling evidence assignment available

Then, use your table to calculate the following probabilities:

a. The probability of 1 girl
b. The probability of 2 girls
c. The probability of 4 girls
d. The probability the third child born is a girl

2. As pictured in Figure 6.11 of your textbook, a roulette wheel has 38 numbers: 18 odd black numbers from 1 to 35, 18 even red numbers from 2 to 36, and the two green numbers 0 and 00. Using theoretical probability, calculate the following:

a. The probability of spinning a green number
b. The probability of spinning a number greater than 30
c. The probability of spinning a red number of less than 10
d. The probability of spinning an even black number
e. The expected total of green numbers in 57,000 spins

3. In a nationwide polls of 1,500 randomly selected U.S. residents, 77% said that they liked pizza. In a poll of 1,500 randomly selected U.S. residents one month later, 75% responded that they liked pizza.

Polling evidence assignment available

a. Does the polling evidence support the claim that pizza declined in popularity over the month between polls? Explain why or why not.
b. Using statistical terminology, precisely identify the population parameter the two polls were attempting to measure. How does a parameter differ from a statistic?
c. Based on the two polls, what would you say to someone who guessed that the population parameter the polls are trying to measure is really only 50%?

Polling evidence assignment available

4. Eleven people have eleven different favorite numbers from 2 to 12. They all agree to participate in a 10,000-roll dice game where they bet $1 on their favorite number for each roll of two standard (fair) dice. A donor kicks in an extra dollar every round, so the payoff, if your number comes up, is $12.

a. Assuming everyone bets on all 10,000 rounds, what is the expected value for a person who has number 7? (Show your calculations.)
b. Assuming everyone bets on all 10,000 rounds, what is the expected
value for a person who has number 2? (Show your calculations.

We can write this or a similar paper for you! Simply fill the order form!